Next steps · Poker strategy
Implied Odds in Poker: Formula and Worked Example
By Pokerscope · Updated · 3 min read
Implied odds account for additional money you expect to win on later streets after improving. They can make a draw worth continuing when the current pot alone does not offer a good enough price.
In this guide
Pot odds versus implied odds
Pot odds compare your call with money already available. Implied odds add a forecast: how much more will the opponent pay after you hit?
A concealed straight may get paid by a strong pair. A fourth card of the same suit on the board may stop that pair from putting in more money. Both draws can have the same completion probability but very different future earnings.
If the opponent is already all in, there is no additional money to win from that player. Implied odds cannot repair a losing call in that situation.
Calculate the extra money a draw needs
Return to the turn flush draw from the outs guide: K♥ Q♥ against A♣ A♦ on 9♥ 6♥ 2♣ 7♦. Nine hearts win, giving you about 20% equity. Suppose the opponent bets $50 into $100 and still has chips behind.
For this example, use the rounded 20% estimate. Assume you pay nothing more when you miss and win whenever you hit. Ignore rake.
Extra winnings needed = call size ÷ equity − pot after calling
There is $150 in the middle and you must call $50. Without future money, the final pot is $200 and your call has EV of 0.20 × $200 − $50 = −$10.
The extra payment needed is $50 ÷ 0.20 − $150 − $50 = $50. You need to win another $50 from the opponent on average when you hit to break even under these assumptions.
If the opponent pays $100 only half the times you hit and nothing the rest, that supplies the $50 average. But a third heart on the board may make aces reluctant to pay. Having $100 behind does not mean they will put it in.
When implied odds are more plausible
- Enough effective stack remains. You cannot win more than the opponent can contribute and you can cover.
- The opponent has a hand that can pay. A missed bluff may contribute nothing after your draw arrives.
- Your improvement is hard to read. An obvious draw can shut down action.
- You make a strong enough hand. The likelihood of being paid matters only if your hand actually wins.
On the flop, further betting complicates the calculation. You may have to pay again before reaching the river. The simple turn formula does not include that extra cost.
What are reverse implied odds?
Reverse implied odds describe future losses when you improve but still make the worse hand. A small flush against a higher flush or a dominated top pair can cost additional bets after appearing to hit.
Counting all draw-completing cards as wins ignores this risk. Use clean outs where possible and compare against a realistic opponent range.
Should I always call with a draw when stacks are deep?
No. Deep stacks create the possibility of winning more, and of losing more. Your opponent’s range, willingness to pay, and the strength of your completed hand determine which effect matters.