Foundations · Poker strategy
Poker Outs: How to Count Them and Use an Outs Chart
By Pokerscope · Updated · 4 min read
An out is a community card that would give you a better hand than your opponent. Counting outs is a shortcut for estimating equity when you are behind but can improve.
In this guide
Start by counting the cards that help
You hold A♠ K♠ against Q♥ Q♦ on 9♣ 6♦ 2♥. An ace or king puts you ahead of queens.
Three aces and three kings remain: A♣ A♦ A♥ K♣ K♦ K♥. That gives you six outs to take the lead on the next card.
These are called overcards because both hole cards are higher than every card on the board. They help against this pair of queens; they would not automatically be winning outs against a set.
Calculating outs on the turn
On the turn, there is one card to come. A quick estimate is:
Equity ≈ outs × 2%
You hold K♥ Q♥ against A♣ A♦ on 9♥ 6♥ 2♣ 7♦. Any heart makes a winning flush.
There are 13 hearts in the deck and four visible hearts, leaving nine outs:
A♥ J♥ T♥ 8♥ 7♥ 5♥ 4♥ 3♥ 2♥.
The shortcut gives 9 × 2 = 18%. The full equity is about 20%, so this is a useful quick estimate rather than an exact answer. With both hands exposed, there are 44 unseen cards and nine of them win.
Calculating outs on the flop
On the flop, two cards remain. If you will see both, a quick estimate is:
Equity ≈ outs × 4%
You hold 8♥ 7♦ against A♠ A♦ on 6♣ 5♠ 2♥. Any four or nine makes a straight. Four cards of each rank remain, so you have eight outs.
The shortcut gives 8 × 4 = 32%. The full matchup has about 34% equity. There are also ways to make two pair or three of a kind, while some runouts let aces improve again.
Compare this with the turn example: two cards give a draw more time to arrive. A flop call does not always buy both cards, though. If another bet can arrive on the turn, consider that cost when using pot odds.
Outs-to-equity reference chart
This table gives the chance of hitting a fixed set of outs when only your hand and the board are known. It uses 47 unseen cards on the flop and 46 on the turn; it does not include other ways to win or the opponent improving again.
| Outs | Flop to river | Turn to river |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 8.4% | 4.3% |
| 4 | 16.5% | 8.7% |
| 6 | 24.1% | 13.0% |
| 8 | 31.5% | 17.4% |
| 9 | 35.0% | 19.6% |
| 12 | 45.0% | 26.1% |
| 15 | 54.1% | 32.6% |
On the turn, the table gives a little more than two percentage points per out. With many outs on the flop, multiplying by four becomes too generous: 15 × 4 gives 60%, compared with 54.1% in the table.
Winning outs and chop outs
A card that changes a loss into a tie is worth less than one that wins the whole pot. Heads-up, count a guaranteed chop out as half a winning out.
With A♥ 3♥ against A♣ J♦ on A♠ K♦ Q♣ 2♠, three remaining threes win. Ten cards that pair the board create a tie: the remaining ace, three kings, three queens, and three twos.
3 winning outs + (10 chop outs × ½) = 8 effective outs
Eight effective outs among 44 unseen cards give about 18% equity. Accounting for the split explains why the hand has more equity than just its three winning rivers suggest.