Next steps · Poker strategy
Expected Value in Poker: How to Calculate EV
By Pokerscope · Updated · 3 min read
Expected value, or EV, is the average money result if the same spot happened many times. For a call, compare the share of the final pot you expect to win with the money you must pay.
In this guide
The EV formula for calling
When an all-in call gets you to showdown, the calculation is:
EV(call) = equity × pot after call − call size
Suppose there is $100 in the pot and the opponent shoves $50. You must call $50, and the pot after your call will be $200.
The required equity is $50 ÷ $200 = 25%. At exactly 25% equity, EV is 0.25 × $200 − $50 = $0. Above that threshold, the call earns money on average; below it, the call loses money on average.
The examples below ignore rake and use rounded equity estimates.
Calling with 7♥6♥ is positive EV
You hold 7♥ 6♥ against A♠ A♣ on T♥ 9♥ 9♠. You have a heart draw and a straight draw, giving you about 40% equity.
The opponent shoves $50 into $100:
EV(call) ≈ 0.40 × $200 − $50 = +$30
Using the more precise equity estimate of 39.90%, the result is about +$29.80. Rounding to 40% is enough to see that calling is substantially better than folding.
You still lose more often than you win. The call is profitable because the money you can win compensates for that risk.
Calling with 7♦6♦ is negative EV
Keep the opponent, board and bet exactly the same, but change your hand to 7♦ 6♦. Without the heart draw, your equity falls to about 16%.
EV(call) ≈ 0.16 × $200 − $50 = −$18
Using the more precise 16.16% equity gives about −$17.68. Folding has EV of zero from this decision, so folding is better than paying for this chance to win.
| Hand on T♥ 9♥ 9♠ vs A♠ A♣ | Approximate equity | EV of a $50 call |
|---|---|---|
| 7♥ 6♥ | 40% | +$30 |
| 7♦ 6♦ | 16% | −$18 |
This comparison shows why the suits matter. Both hands have the same ranks and face the same price, but they do not have the same equity.
Work through another call
You hold A♥ K♥ against Q♣ Q♦ on J♣ 7♥ 2♥ 4♠. The pot is $100 and the opponent shoves $75.
- The final pot will be $100 + $75 + $75 = $250.
- Required equity is $75 ÷ $250 = 30%.
- Nine hearts, three aces and three kings win: 15 outs among 44 unseen cards, or about 34% equity.
- Using that rounded estimate, EV(call) is 0.34 × $250 − $75 = +$10.
Count the outs, estimate equity, and compare the result with the price. Practicing that sequence is more useful than memorizing the outcome of one hand.
What EV tells you after the hand
A winning call can have been negative EV, and a losing call can have been positive EV. Review the equity and price you faced before the result.
These examples use exposed hands so the calculation is clear. In a real hand, replace the exact opponent holding with their range. If there is more betting to come, account for that before applying the simple all-in formula.